News from the Knoff Group

Q4 YYY and 2015-2017 YYY Market Updates, Market Minute & Luxury Statistics

Top takeaways Q4 Year over Year market analysis

Quarter 4 2017 was the busiest of the past three years, with increases in median sales price in almost all segments and areas. Single family home median sales price jumped between 8% (Belgrade) to 32% (Livingston), condos and townhomes dipped slightly in City of Bozeman where number of units sold spiked (due to new construction) while other areas jumped 9% (greater Bozeman) to 32% (Big Sky) as the more affordable product was snapped up at a premium. Land sale median skyrocketed for all areas with the exception of greater Bozeman – other areas (Belgrade, Bozeman, Big Sky) jumped 35-50%.

List to sales price ratios, an average of how close to list price that that sellers are receiving for their properties, shows that in almost all segments the market is favoring a seller’s market. With some exceptions. As list prices have climbed, buyers in some segments of the market have become slightly morose about over priced homes brought on without regard to recent comps – and there has been some discounting as a result.

Volume indicates quarter 4 was just as robust, if not stronger, than both the other 2017 quarters and previous years for residential and land sales. The most impressive stat was a 111% increase in number of single family homes sold in Big Sky and a 67% increase in number of lots sold in Big Sky. Quarter 4 2016 was fairly lackluster in the Big Sky market, likely due to election jitters – but Quarter 4 2017 has proven the market is strong. Number of units sold has increased steadily where inventory available has allowed.

Single Family Q4 2017

Condo Townhomes Q4 2017

Land Q4 2017

Top takeaways Year Over Year market analysis

Growth has moved outside City of Bozeman limits for single family homes, with the largest jumps in median sales price posting in Greater Bozeman, Belgrade, Big Sky and Livingston markets. Number of units sold is deceiving – the inventory has been tight and volume/number of units sold would be higher if the product was there to be sold. Volume has spiked in Livingston and Big Sky as those markets have taken off.

Condo sales across the board have jumped 8% (City of Bozeman) to 20% (Big Sky) as affordable product has become scarce. Volume has shattered the past three years in all segments of the market, even as number of units sold has remained fairly lackluster with the exception of greater Bozeman area.

Land sales median sales prices have escalated in all areas with the exception of Big Sky. City of Bozeman, greater Bozeman area and Belgrade are running at a shortage of land options – there are more lots in the pipeline for Belgrade but not for many other areas of the valley. Median land prices have dropped in Big Sky but the number of parcels sold has doubled to a three year high of 92 lots in 2017. The median price likely has been skewed as a huge number of less expensive lots flew off the market this year and we’re anticipating a big push of custom and spec homes to be built in the next year or two on these lots.2017 Y/Y Single Family

2017 Y/Y Land

2017 Y/Y Condo Townhome

Top takeaways Q4– High End and Luxury Residential Segments

For properties priced from $650-$1 million, Q4 2017 was an especially busy one in the Bozeman and greater Bozeman area while Big Sky was on par with previous years. Bozeman and greater Bozeman doubled in number of sales for Q4 over 2016, with days on market cut in about half and median sales prices about on par with the previous year.

Above $1 million, Bozeman and greater Bozeman were on par with previous years, while Big Sky posted some of its best numbers to date. Median sales price was up 60% and number of listings sold more than doubled over 2016. As discussed previously, Big Sky seemed to react to election jitters more dramatically than the Bozeman/greater Bozeman markets did in 2016. The market is now showing its strength.

Q4 High End $650K-$1M 2017

Q4 Luxury $1M+ 2017

Top takeaways Year Over Year – High End and Luxury Residential Segments

Properties priced $650K-$1 million in the Bozeman and greater Bozeman markets showed steady year over year median sales prices with a big jump in number of units sold. There is still some discounting happening between list and sales price as a general rule but this gap is narrowing.

Properties priced over $1 million saw growth in number of units sold in all three areas, with a rather large jump in the greater Bozeman and Big Sky markets. Median sales price is also up in greater Bozeman and Big Sky as more higher priced properties move. Days on market are on par or slightly longer than years previous, however this may be skewed as more properties that have been on the market moved in the past year than previous.Y/Y High End $650K-$1M 2017

Y/Y Luxury $1M+ 2017